Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 1.455282 1.652221 1.862106 2.102007 2.368183 2.654009 2.983701
2024-12-22 1.188926 1.455776 1.758513 2.125792 2.557619 3.047451 3.643270
2024-12-29 1.033720 1.357649 1.746846 2.245092 2.861781 3.595531 4.529663
2025-01-05 0.840560 1.185986 1.625821 2.219821 2.992933 3.956129 5.236651
2025-01-12 0.700685 1.061125 1.546857 2.237430 3.179993 4.405767 6.101610
2025-01-19 0.577809 0.940025 1.456678 2.229358 3.333774 4.830202 6.979950
2025-01-26 0.502385 0.874854 1.435246 2.313526 3.622784 5.463490 8.197932
2025-02-02 0.433481 0.808178 1.402582 2.377823 3.891793 6.096537 9.476936
2025-02-09 0.368525 0.736393 1.351857 2.408498 4.115130 6.686335 10.749560
2025-02-16 0.315590 0.675427 1.309662 2.447255 4.355330 7.323557 12.148405
2025-02-23 0.258821 0.595998 1.223856 2.402415 4.457250 7.759304 13.281206
2025-03-02 0.205686 0.511854 1.115720 2.303680 4.458151 8.035361 14.189025
2025-03-09 0.172483 0.463173 1.069353 2.316449 4.663683 8.681467 15.775965
2025-03-16 0.141585 0.411835 1.008877 2.294606 4.806803 9.239609 17.271880
2025-03-23 0.124549 0.389032 1.003786 2.381215 5.160336 10.192320 19.511094
2025-03-30 0.099926 0.339874 0.932054 2.321544 5.230319 10.654094 20.948748
2025-04-06 0.082821 0.305623 0.887469 2.312524 5.398499 11.308492 22.777996
2025-04-13 0.067644 0.271766 0.836717 2.281829 5.519165 11.885562 24.514149
2025-04-20 0.059283 0.256275 0.829087 2.348672 5.849957 12.887215 27.098460
2025-04-27 0.051386 0.239541 0.814806 2.397747 6.148449 13.850971 29.681008
2025-05-04 0.043619 0.220236 0.789267 2.415240 6.379512 14.700104 32.105428
2025-05-11 0.037334 0.203967 0.768919 2.442865 6.636607 15.622151 34.733446
2025-05-18 0.030111 0.180389 0.720691 2.388963 6.698315 16.146491 36.615891